Is Oil Heading to 80 USD?

The big oil rally seems to be far from over, and the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) benchmark rose above 67.50 USD on Monday for the first time since October 2018.

Offshore oil and gas development is set to recover from the shock that prices and demand went through due to the pandemic. It’s also set for a new record in project commitments in the five years leading up to 2025, according to Rystad Energy. This news was well-received by oil companies last week. 

Additionally, oil operators are expected to commit to developing a record number of offshore oil and gas projects over the next five years.

According to the Goldman Sachs correlation analysis, based on daily charts, oil and copper are among the best-performing assets during inflation times. Oil is up hundreds of percent from its April lows when the price went negative for a day. 

Earlier in the month, Goldman raised its Brent crude forecast by 5 USD per barrel to 75 USD for the second quarter of 2021, then pushed it further to 80 USD for the third quarter.

Last Thursday, OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) started another rally in oil price after the decision to keep output quotas unchanged in April. This happened despite market expectations for supply to notch up to meet demand, as the world progresses in COVID-19 vaccination campaigns.

It looks like oil could hit the 70 USD level sooner than later, especially if central banks and governments continue to flood the markets with liquidity. Therefore, Goldman's 80 USD target is looking pretty realistic this year. 

On the downside, the first stronger support is seen at February highs of 63.50 USD for WTI, with the other demand zone most likely at around 60 USD.

Stocks seem wobbly. Are markets heading for a correction?

Stock markets across the world look overvalued, and many market participants are calling for a correction. Many catalysts could cause a sharp sell-off - such as rising yields, inflation pressures, strengthening US dollar, and so on.

The greenback usually advances during risk-off sentiment. Considering the dollar index has broken to the upside from a large falling wedge pattern which is a bullish formation, further gains seem likely. 

As we saw last week, the entire market, including small and mid-cap markets, is sensitive to sharp increases in rates. Tech companies, which usually have no earnings, dropped the most as they are the most sensitive to higher rates. 

Should the USD and yields continue to go higher, it will most likely cause some serious troubles in the equity markets. 

Additionally, according to the Bank of America, investors' cash levels fell to 4.0%, triggering a “sell signal”; The last time the sell signal was triggered was in February 2020 - everyone knows what happened next.

Another indicator from the Bofa, the Sell Side Indicator (SSI), is about sending a sell signal. The last time the indicator was this close to “Sell” was June 2007, after which we generally saw 12-month returns of -13%. 

The long-term trend in US stocks is still bullish, and only a very significant correction would change that. However, the short-term picture doesn't look so positive, and we might see some declines over the next few days.

Are Rising Yields Going to Spoil the Bullish Party?

US yields are seeing another day of highs. The US 10-year yield rose to fresh cycle highs on Monday and was trading slightly below the 1.4% handle as traders keep dumping bonds due to inflation expectations. 

Based on Federal Reserve (Fed) funds futures markets, the chances of a 0.25% Fed rate hike by the end of 2022 have increased from 50% to 70%. The same market sees a 95% chance that if the rate hike doesn’t take place in 2022, it will by March of 2023. 

At the same time, economists have been rapidly increasing their 2021 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts. The majority of them now expect the US economy to grow by 5% in 2021 as lockdowns ease and people return to their normal lives.

However, it’s not that simple. Stronger economic growth could prompt a faster rise in rates, driving up borrowing costs and weighing on risky assets such as stocks and high-yield bonds, limiting economic growth.

It looks like equities are starting to roll over; on Monday the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 index saw its fifth day of decline. Tech, growth and small-cap stocks are usually hit the hardest by rising rates. 

And since stocks can only go up, as the favorite mantra goes, the Fed needs to step in soon and start doing something to stop the rise in yields. Otherwise, we can really experience a larger correction. 

Another sign of a waning bullish mood could be from the hedge funds’ positioning as they turned short on small caps two weeks ago, then widened their bearish bets a week later. As of Friday, their net short exposure, at 9,000 contracts, is the largest in eight months.

Additionally, it seems that rising yields are not helping the USD as inflation expectations continue to rise. At least something "good" came out of it for foreign investors. 

3 Ways Online Tools Empower You to Start Trading

What is one of the most powerful tools that allows you to trade without breaking the bank? INFINOX Managing Director, Jay Mawji, highlights how technology plays a critical role in helping Africans trade, and what you should look for in a trading partner.

“Accessibility, accountability and affordability. These are the 3 keys to understanding how the financial trading industry has opened up to allow customers in Africa to reap the rewards that come with responsible and regulated trading,” says Mawji.

Accessibility

Provided there’s adequate internet connection, an individual can trade from any location imaginable. This means that trading is not only available to stock brokers on the trading floor, but that you can get in on the action too. 

“I opened my first demo account when I was 23 years old, in a hotel room on the way back from a holiday after a flight was cancelled. That’s how accessible it was in 2005 - and it’s even more accessible now,” says Mawji. “The rise of apps allows for mobile trading so you can purchase and trade shares anywhere and at any time from the convenience of your mobile device.”

Accountability

Technology also allows you to access countless trading tools and read up on the latest industry news and information, so you can hold your broker accountable for pricing, execution and services. This creates a more trusting environment where you are comfortable enough to participate. 

“In fact, if you ask your social circle, you’d probably be surprised how many people you know who are already trading,” says Mawji. 

Affordability

You no longer need to spend thousands of dollars or “know someone” in the trading industry. Now, all you need to start trading is an investment around $100 and access to the internet. 

“You can open your own trading account for less than $100* with Infinox,” says Mawji.

How technology helps protect traders

The changes in online technology have not only affected your ability to trade – they have also had an impact on how the industry is regulated. Regulators have to constantly adapt and adjust trading regulations that set out how firms operate and the products that they can offer you. 

This is done with the goal of protecting you. 

Although this adaptation can slow down regulatory advancements, it also allows traders the opportunity to slow down, and take the time to make sure that they understand your needs and provide solutions which work for you. 

So, what are the key traits to look out for when you’re in the market for a trading provider? 

“Find a partner who is regulated, and embodies a client-centric ethos,” says Mawji. “They should also focus on aspects such as pricing and ensure they are using the best trading technologies in the market.”

Consider how reliable the trading partners’ server is, because you don’t want to receive a report that the server has crashed just when you’ve made a significant trade. This also ties in with your trading partners’ execution speed, because timing is of the essence when it comes to online trading.

While true trading power and knowledge comes from experience, it’s also important to keep learning. Reading up on trading best practices, paying attention to market trends, and the risks involved is a good start. There are numerous tutorials, applications, guides and videos readily available online, but keep in mind that fast information may not be valuable knowledge. 

Make sure your trading partner has its finger on the pulse – and it’s even better if they can provide you with additional support throughout your trading journey. “Our research channels, manuals, academies, and electronic trading tools help you identify the next trading opportunity. And our multilingual support team is available to you 24 hours a day, 5 days a week,” says Mawji.

When it comes to finding a trustworthy broker, the best place to start is with the Securities Commission of The Bahamas (SCB) who keeps an up-to-date register of all firms and their business activities. Conducting research on the trading firm and the regulations that they abide by will help protect your consumer rights. 

“Remember, if it’s too good to be true, it usually is,” says Mawji. “In the trading world, this means that you should be wary if it’s too easy to open an account, too easy to deposit, too easy to trade and especially if you hear promises that making large amounts of money is easy. This is a clear sign that the broker has limited regulations and processes in place.”

While the impact of technology cannot be understated, it should be remembered that at the heart of the trading industry lies the client, and how you use digital tools has a profound effect on which technology is developed in the first place, and how it evolves. “It’s for this reason that we say that even in a digital world, human value is still the key to success,” says Mawji.

USD Remains Low Despite Spiking US Yields

Over the previous days and weeks, we've seen some severe "spikes" in longer-term US yields, while short-term yields remain depressed near record lows. The yield curve has steepened notably, which has always been a bearish sign for the overall economy and financial markets. 

The US 30-year yield rose back to a 2-handle, above 2%, the highest level since February 2020 making it a new post-pandemic high. The 10-year yield jumped above 1.2%, a level last seen in March of 2020.

Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve (Fed) noted that monetary policy would stay accommodative for a very long time. On February 10, Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said the true unemployment rate is actually 10%, in a speech on the labor market. Moreover, he reiterated that rates would stay low.

It’s only a matter of time before the Fed will need to officially announce the yield curve control and start buying large quantities of long-term bonds to suppress the advancing yields. Inflation expectations are rising fast, making bonds less attractive, and a "smarter" investment could just be to dump bonds and buy stocks. 

Meanwhile, the USD remains low against most of its major peers. The USDJPY which tends to be closely correlated to US yields, is the only pair that’s gone higher. 

As long as the EURUSD trades above 1.2050, the medium-term outlook seems bullish, while the GBPUSD pair is approaching the psychological level of 1.40.

One of the biggest underperformers lately have been gold and silver. Gold is stuck in a bearish trend since August highs, while silver tried to move above 30 USD but was smashed lower. 

On the other hand, the clear winners in this inflationary environment are oil and copper, rising without any interruptions. 

Forex Brokers Unprofitability – February 2021

As the year 2020 has come to end, a lot of Forex brokers have updated their traders’ unprofitability numbers as required by the ESMA regulations. Even though these numbers have to be updated by Forex/ CFD brokers on a quarterly basis, not all regulated European brokers do that regularly. However, the vast majority of brokers already refreshed their risk warning, so we can finally check the updates. 

We suppose the percentage displayed by brokers includes the number of all losing accounts divided by the number of all accounts during the last 12 months, since it is only the middle of the first quarter. We have checked 20 companies. The reason why some companies publish losing accounts percentage and some don’t (or stop publishing) is due to companies leaving/entering ESMA jurisdiction.

We can see that the lowest percentage of losers is 50% (TriumphFX), while the maximum is 82.78% (TradeFW). However, it is not actually possible to get a meaningful and believable percentage value due to the distorted data published by brokers reporting a range instead of a single number and by brokers with not enough EU traders.

The list of 20 brokers and unprofitability of their retail traders (sorted in an ascending order):

TriumphFX50%
EBH Forex 51.38%
Everfx65%
Etoro67%
Valbury Capital 68%
Skilling69%
Saxo Bank 70%
Trade 360 70.33%
City index 73%
IG Markets 75%
CMC Markets76%
FXCM 76.31%
Plus500 76.4%
ETX Capital 76.42%
BDSwiss 78.8%
Forex.com 79%
Infinox 82.44%
TradeFW 82.78%

Oil Rally Continues, How High Will It Go?

As of Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has been seeing gains for eight consecutive days, and at the time of writing is trading near 58.60 USD. Oil gained 135% in February alone, making it one of the best-performing commodities. 

Last April, WTI dropped below zero with the subsequent front-month contract trading at around 15 USD. This means oil has seen a staggering 280% gain since May 2021, and it looks like the rally is not over yet. 

Total, a French multinational integrated oil and gas company, and one of the 7 supermajor oil companies, reported a net loss of 7.2 billion USD for 2020, down from a profit of 11.27 billion USD in 2019, suggesting oil demand was incredibly weak last year.

Considering continued global lockdowns, demand could still be very low in the first months of 2021, putting further pressure on oil companies. 

Nevertheless, oil price is moving higher nearly every day. Oil and copper tend to be from the best inflation hedges in the world. When investors expect rising inflation, they buy hard assets, such as commodities. 

Since central banks and governments are flooding the system with money, inflation expectations are spiking higher, and oil will most likely continue to outperform other assets. We would not be surprised to see oil north of 70 USD, despite the global economic depression. That is what happens when uncontrolled money printing becomes a reality. 

Technically speaking, the next major resistance is most likely at 2020 highs in the 65 USD area. If that level is broken to the upside, oil could rise toward 2018 highs near 75 USD. 

Alternatively, the major support now stands in the 52/54 zone, and while oil trades above it, the medium and long-term outlooks look bullish.

10 Gifts 2020 Gave Traders

When we look back on 2020, we’ll probably remember COVID-19, the sudden virus outbreak that tanked markets and crashed economies. The future looked painfully uncertain, and it dramatically affected almost every aspect of our normal everyday life. 

Despite the dark clouds and many weathered storms, 2020 had its share of silver linings too. For millions of traders around the world, it meant more time to invest in trading, more resources to level-up skills, and more market volatility to take advantage of. 

Sure it wasn’t a smooth ride for everyone, and there was a lot to adjusting, but there were also plenty of gifts for traders who looked for them.  Here are 10 gifts 2020 gave traders.

  1. More time at home = more time to trade

If 2020 gave us anything, it was the gift of time. Being forced to spend more time at home meant a lot more free time to focus on trading. There was time to practice strategies, analyze  the market, and monitor its performance throughout the day. 

The near-unprecedented market volatility was also a big incentive to leverage the market’s highs and lows. There were plenty of those in 2020. 

As a result, brokers saw a significant uptick in trading volumes when the lockdowns were taking effect globally in March 2020, which means many more traders turned to their trading accounts and took advantage of opportunities.  

  1. Lockdowns = More online efforts from brokers

With more flexible schedules, traders aso had time to level up their trading skills. They were at home with more time to kill. When the lockdowns began in March, Google Trends saw an increase in people searching for words like forex, trading courses, and day trading, almost doubling in some cases, since the beginning of 2020.

In response, brokers began providing more access to free online training courses, webinars, and market insights. It was a way to stay closer to traders since seminars and meet-ups were cancelled, and many brokers put extra effort to help traders navigate unprecedented extreme volatility that came along with unprecedented lockdowns. 

Videos with high production value helped traders understand the industry, trading academies on brokers’ websites were advanced and webinars frequencies increased. 

Topical webinars were particularly popular during the pandemic. With everyone safely at home and travel-limitations being enforced globally, there was record-breaking webinar attendance. 

With more people taking up trading, brokerage firms also aligned their offers to make it easier and more cost-effective for everyone to access the financial markets. Zero-commissions is now the name of the game. 

  1. Negative oil prices = new oil indices 

On April 20, 2020, the benchmark price for crude oil in the United States fell to -$37.63. It was a historic crash and the first time oil dropped into negative territory. The shock of the Covid crisis was spreading and it triggered a sudden and very drastic drop in demand for oil. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, dropped below $0 for the first time.

In response,  new pioneering oil indices were introduced to both protect clients and give them the opportunity to take advantage of the oil markets.  

With oil indices, traders could still take advantage of the oil market’s volatility, with less risk. These US and UK Oil Indices will not stop out positions if oil prices drop to $0.  These products are rebased at $100. That means, should spot price fall into negative territory, for example -$5 USD, the pricing of the index will reflect this at $95 giving traders the opportunity to leverage their loss.

The best part is traders can still analyze price movements in the same way as we would analyze oil, using the same fundamental and technical indicators to open and close positions. 

  1. The world moving online = an edge for those who are already online

For online traders, adjusting to the post-corona world was relatively easy. Most professionals had to adapt to working remotely and purely online. For traders this was just another Wednesday, no transition was required. That meant that 2020 was slightly smoother for traders in comparison to others. 

During COVID they facilitated a smooth adjustment to home-based trading. Helping traders adapt through the pandemic and beyond is a comforting gift that makes it easier for traders to keep calm and carry on. 

  1. Unstable markets + a tension-filled US election = stocks hitting all-time highs 

Buoyed by the prospect of a Democratic president and Republican senate, stocks hit an all-time high in November. 

Analysts were optimistic that a Biden presidency will deliver a new economic stimulus package that will be good for the markets, while a Republican Senate will likely block more expensive Democrat policies, like corporate tax hikes and debt-funded spending on infrastructure. 

That’s great news for the markets, and after the run the stock market had in 2020, it’s welcome news. Analysts are forecasting the stock market will remain strong throughout 2021, which means this gift will likely keep on giving.

  1. A historic US election = interesting trading opportunities

Many CFD traders were sizing up their trading and risk management strategies and positioning themselves to trade the unprecedented volatility of 2020’s US election. 

Trump was up for re-election, anything could happen, and that kept volatility high in the markets leading up to November, 2020 - and beyond. Volatility continued to pick up as Biden captured enough Electoral College votes to win the U.S. Presidency, and even while Trump challenged states to vote recounts.

Every trader looks for a rise in market volatility for potential opportunities. That’s why the 2020 US election was a welcome end to the year. It has continued to deliver after the elections were called. The markets then turn their attention to the implications of a contested election and, potentially, a divided government.

Market volatility and the plethora of news that was driving the market, created many trading opportunities for traders. 

  1. Trump tweets = trump tweets 

By now everyone is well aware of Trump tweets, which for the last four years have affected the world and the markets. Trump was in no way a conventional president so it wasn’t a surprise that he insisted on keeping his personal Twitter account active during his time in office. 

In 2020 - which would be his last year in office - his tweets continued to deliver a roller coaster ride of mixed emotions for traders. He shocked, terrified, amused, and very often baffled us with intentionally false or misleading information. 

The way he relied on Twitter and the way his Twitter account affected the world is as unprecedented as the Coronavirus lockdowns that defined 2020 - it’s worth mentioning that he was banned from Twitter in January of 2021. 

Who’s to say if the incoming president will be as prolific on Twitter, but it’s safe to assume he’ll be a lot less controversial and 2020’s obsession with the US president’s Twitter account is over.

  1. Biden wins the US election = a gift for everyone around the world

On January 20, 2021 Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th president of the United States. 

Any new US presidency tends to affect the market, but this specific presidency means an end to Trump’s divisive and controversial presidency. 

While the markets did see a lot of highs during Trump’s four-year term, towards the end, the USD had been weakening. A Biden presidency could bring more stability to the global economies. Analysts predict his policies for managing the health crisis and proposed investments in clean energy will be great for the markets.

Regardless of the markets, the United States and most people around the world let out a global sigh of relief, that one of the most controversial presidencies in history had finally come to an end.

  1. An unprecedented NFP report = the return of the NFP effect

The US nonfarm payrolls report (NFP) has always been an anticipated news release that traders used as a cue for their next trading moves. But for May 2020, the NFP crushed market expectations by 9.5 million. The median estimate expected on Wall Street was -7.5 million jobs (lost). Instead, the NFP showed the actual figure was +2.5 million jobs (gained). 

The unemployment rate fell to 13.3% from 14.7% previously reported too. This had investors and traders hopeful, seeing clear indication that the US may be turning the corner economically. The stock market gained over 700 points, and the USD/JPY price action spiked.

That was one of our favorite moments this year. Despite all of the negative downturns, the May report offered a glimmer of much-needed hope for the markets after a very bleak first-quarter run. 

  1. CFDs = a gift every single year

The markets were exceptionally volatile this year, and that was great news for CFD traders. Unlike long-term traders who buy actual assets and wait for them to rise, CFDs offer traders the opportunity to trade on both the upward and downward movements in the market. 

That came in very handy in 2020, because there was plenty of movement in the markets to leverage. 

It mattered not if the markets rose or fell as long as market prices were moving, there was an opportunity for CFD traders to trade on market's volatility. CFDs are designed to mimic their underlying market's trading environment fairly closely, so as you monitor your investment, you’ll see your profit or loss move with the underlying market price. With the right strategies, tools and understanding of the markets, trading CFDs can be very profitable. 

The flexibility CFDs offered traders in 2020 enabled them to take advantage of  the years exceptionally high-volatility. With all the uncertainty and risk to manage, CFD traders had the option to hold long as well as short positions, quickly adjust their strategies and hedge their portfolio. 

Technology drives an inclusive trading market

INFINOX Managing Director, Jay Mawji, explains that technological advancements have allowed everyday people the opportunity to trade without breaking the bank, and highlights key takeaways of what clients should be looking for in an online trading partner. 

Gone are the days of being in the know and wheeling and dealing with the stressed out stock trader on the floor during the Wall Street boom era. Today, trading is accessible to anyone with disposable income, young or old. 

Putting this into context, it has recently been reported that millennials make up as much as 60% of the 15 million online traders across the globe. This number reflects the rise of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and how technology has become intrinsic in many of our daily lives. Millennials are the first of the digital natives amongst generations, and in the world of trading, the natural progression was for it to move from solely being entrenched in the physical world, to moving into the digital realm - bringing along with it many new opportunities. 

Much has changed in the financial trading industry with the advent of technology. Technology opened the market up to everyday people, and allowed them to reap the rewards that come with responsible and regulated trading, comprising what Mawji refers to as the 3 A’s: accessibility, accountability, and affordability.

Why Start Trading Now?

Today, technological advancements have allowed us the accessibility to trade from any location imaginable, provided that there's an adequate internet connection. As such, the digitisation of the industry was an important step forward to ensure its progression to one that is open to a larger demographic than before, and not just stock brokers on the trading floor.

Further, in a digital world, clients can hold brokers accountable for pricing, execution, and services; creating a more trusting environment where clients will feel more confident in participating. Lastly, the digitisation of the industry has presented a more affordable option to trading, and instead of spending hundreds of thousands and needing to know someone in the trading industry in the days gone by, today all that is needed is an investment around $100 and access to the internet. 

By far some of the most significant technological innovations that have been introduced to online trading include tools associated with pricing, charting, and order logs. However, one which we have seen becoming ever-more prevalent given the App Generation that we live in is the concept of mobile trading, allowing one to purchase and trade financial instruments from anywhere and at anytime from the convenience of their mobile device. 

However with these digital progressions, regulations and the ability to understand clients will always be the biggest ramification to the evolution of these technologies. Regulators have to constantly adapt and adjust regulation to dictate how firms and their market solutions should operate, while taking into account how clients are protected. And while this can at times slow down regulatory advancements, it allows trading partners the opportunity to slow down and pay greater attention to where we can adapt and provide even greater solutions to clients.

Find the Best Broker For You

When looking to partner with an online trading provider, traders should look for one that not only provides customer care, but one that is regulated in the relevant jurisdiction and focuses on aspects such as pricing, and trading technologies. Additionally, traders should consider the providers’ server reliability and execution speed. 

It's important to consider that in order to be a successful trader, you should be regularly educating yourself on trading best practises, including being attentive to the trends and the various associated risks involved. While there are numerous resources such as tutorials, applications, guides and videos readily available on the internet, be cognizant that consuming this fast information doesn’t always lead to success, with true trading power and knowledge coming from experience. 

It’s therefore important to partner with a broker that has its finger on the pulse of the digital evolution, while still maintaining the human touch that will enable a trustworthy relationship between broker and trader. 

This is because as technology has grown, malpractice has evolved to take advantage of digital opportunities. The rise of the digital age has resulted in an information overload and often a lot of this information is made up of unqualified opinions and regurgitated statements.

Top Tips For Selecting A Broker

In order to find the right broker, it is crucial to conduct research on the company and the regulations that they abide by. The best place to do so would be the Securities Exchange of the Bahamas (SCB) who keeps an up-to-date register of all firms and their business activities.

Secondly, traders must recognise the investment risk versus reward, and take into account that it should be a balanced approach between the two, while being aware that if it is too good to be true, it usually is. Be wary of schemes that are too easy to open an account, too easy to deposit, too easy to trade, and too easy to make money. This is a clear sign of limited regulations and processes. 

While the advent of technology has undoubtedly been instrumental in the progression of the industry, we must be aware of the fact that at the heart of the industry lies the client, and that technology’s impact on the industry is truly down to how the client digests it. This highlights that even in a digital world, human value is still key to success.