Oil Rally Continues, How High Will It Go?

February 10, 2021 at 02:46 PM

As of Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has been seeing gains for eight consecutive days, and at the time of writing is trading near 58.60 USD. Oil gained 135% in February alone, making it one of the best-performing commodities. 

Last April, WTI dropped below zero with the subsequent front-month contract trading at around 15 USD. This means oil has seen a staggering 280% gain since May 2021, and it looks like the rally is not over yet. 

Total, a French multinational integrated oil and gas company, and one of the 7 supermajor oil companies, reported a net loss of 7.2 billion USD for 2020, down from a profit of 11.27 billion USD in 2019, suggesting oil demand was incredibly weak last year.

Considering continued global lockdowns, demand could still be very low in the first months of 2021, putting further pressure on oil companies. 

Nevertheless, oil price is moving higher nearly every day. Oil and copper tend to be from the best inflation hedges in the world. When investors expect rising inflation, they buy hard assets, such as commodities. 

Since central banks and governments are flooding the system with money, inflation expectations are spiking higher, and oil will most likely continue to outperform other assets. We would not be surprised to see oil north of 70 USD, despite the global economic depression. That is what happens when uncontrolled money printing becomes a reality. 

Technically speaking, the next major resistance is most likely at 2020 highs in the 65 USD area. If that level is broken to the upside, oil could rise toward 2018 highs near 75 USD. 

Alternatively, the major support now stands in the 52/54 zone, and while oil trades above it, the medium and long-term outlooks look bullish.

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