Global award-winning broker HotForex is very happy to announce that from July 2021 its Traders Awards is getting bigger and the prize money has been increased to 3000 USD! In its ten years of successful running, the Traders Awards contest has gathered numerous experienced and talented traders all over the world and continues to appeal to those who have outgrown their comfort zone and need a jump-start.
The Traders Awards is an excellent opportunity for traders to fine-tune their trading methods in a highly competitive environment. Each and every month, thousands of traders participate in the live trading contest implementing their best trading skills against other skillful traders. The trader with the greatest gain wins a stunning “Crystal Obelisk“, a USD 3,000 Cash Prize and entry into the HotForex Hall of Fame for showing exceptional trading skills. Plus, the Top 10 traders are featured on the HotForex Traders Awards page in recognition of their hard work and superb trading abilities.
A HotForex spokesperson commented on the contest: “Our commitment is to always offer our clients an optimal trading experience and more chances of success. For this, we are continually looking for new, exciting and rewarding ways to add value to their trading. We hope that all our clients will enjoy the opportunity to showcase their skills to be the Top Trader of the Month and earn the amazing prize of 3000 USD!”
Visit the HotForex website today to find out more about Traders Awards.
About HotForex
HotForex is an internationally acclaimed multi-asset broker of choice to over 2.5 million live accounts worldwide that has earned over 45 coveted industry awards in its ten year history. The company offers a wide variety of account types, innovative products, platforms, tools and educational resources besides outstanding customer service and unparalleled trading conditions to facilitate individuals and institutional customers to trade Forex and CFDs online.
After the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped above 5%, multiple signals that inflation is running hot (lumber, copper, oil, and other commodities), the housing market entering a bubble, and stocks soaring to new all-time highs have finally pushed the Federal Reserve (Fed) to think and most importantly do something about tightening monetary policy.
According to its announcement, the Fed is intending to start tapering Quantitative Easing (QE) in late 2021/early 2022 while also potentially raising rates late in 2022/ early 2023. However, no one can tell if it’s really happening any time soon. But the message was clear - investors should not expect the current monetary policy to last forever.
Bond traders took it really seriously - bond prices rose quickly, sending yields sharply lower, suggesting the market now believes the Fed will tighten monetary policy and inflation will return to 2% soon.
Looking at the long-term chart for yields on the 30-year US Treasury and it is clear that they failed to break their 35+ year downtrend. If the downtrend persists, it might be another bullish signal for US stocks as equities generally rise when yields fall.
Considering both the SP500 and Nasdaq 100 indices remain in their long-term uptrend channels, we could see a quick 10-15% summer rally toward their upper channel lines. Additionally, the USD remains weak, and it looks like it won't maintain the bullish momentum it started after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.
Despite the Fed being hawkish, it appears the long-term trends in the financial markets will remain intact, meaning stocks are expected to go up, bond yields down, and the USD sideways or lower.
Global brokerage Axiory Global launched its brand new Alpha account this week, elevating the company from global broker to multi-asset investment firm.
Powered by the MT5 platform, Axiory’s Alpha account offers traders investment opportunities with some of the world’s largest exchange-listed products, including the stocks of companies such as Apple, Netflix, Ford, Pfizer, Google, Amazon, McDonald’s, Tesla, Walt Disney, Starbucks, Microsoft, Garmin, Alibaba, eBay, Mastercard, and many more. In addition investors can choose from a variety of ETFs.
“There are moments in a company’s lifetime that are considered milestones, turning points that raise the Company to a greater level, and this is exactly what the new Alpha account means for Axiory,” said Axiory Global CEO, Roberto d’Ambrosio.
With the Alpha account, traders and investors can easily buy stocks through the MT5 platform, on desktop, mobile, and the web, by funding their account and selecting the stocks and ETFs they want to invest in.
Axiory’s Alpha account expands the broker’s offering to five different account types on three world-leading trading platforms - MT5, MT4, and cTrader.
This provides Axiory’s clients with more choice and flexibility. Traders and investors can choose to combine CFD trading with stock investments all from one client account, while building a well-rounded investment strategy that leverages the wide variety of opportunities that the financial markets have to offer.
“We are committed to delivering valuable product offerings to our clients. CFDs trading is one part of their trading potential; in combination with global stocks and ETFs, we’re helping our clients expand their portfolio and take advantage of different market opportunities,” said Axiory Global Marketing Director, Dominic Poynter.
Axiory’s feature-rich Alpha account is priced competitively and is poised to be a game-changer for the company.
“I could not be more proud of all my colleagues at Axiory, great people, and dedicated professionals who embraced the strategy and its goals, working relentlessly to bring Alpha to the market. And I would like to thank every one of them publicly. Since I joined the company, we have accomplished a lot, and there’s a lot more to come. This is our time to celebrate a new era for our firm.” said d’Ambrosio.
It seems like the oil is in a very good position on the market these days, since its price keeps on rising. This Monday it shown a nearly 3% gain. Following Iran’s presidential election, which was won by the ultraconservative judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi, Iranian negotiators in Vienna, confirmed that they plan to continue pressing towards a deal.
"We have reached a clear text on all the issues, and what remains requires the decision of all parties. Therefore, it’s not unlikely that the next round of talks will be the last," the foreign ministry optimistically stated.
In case of a successful nuclear deal, it would most likely lead to at least 2.5 million barrels of Iranian crude per day flooding back into the market. This would most likely result in oil price falling to increased supply, but traders have been buying any dip in oil so far.
The Brent benchmark rose above 75 USD first time since October 2018 and at the same time, oil keeps on surging. The predictions of the Citigroup state that Brent will touch 85 USD before Q4 2021. But the Bank of America thinks it will go even higher, and its analyst Francisco Blanc reckons the commodity will reach triple digits or 100+ USD in 2022 as travel demand rebounds.
From a technical point of view, Brent is now facing a stronger resistance of 75 USD, and if bulls push the price above that level, a further rally toward 80 USD could occur. On the downside, as long as oil remains above 70 USD, the medium and long-term outlooks seem bullish, with the short-term support probably located near 72 USD.
Multi-regulated FX broker Eightcap has announced that it’s going to be an organiser of one of the biggest Forex and CFD events of the year – TraderFest 2021. The broker has partnered with ForestParkFX and BKForex to share the must-dos in financial markets that every trader should know.
Joel Murphy, Eightcap CEO, said, “We’re excited to be involved in delivering the biggest retail trading event of the year. In uncertain times for financial markets, Trader Fest gives retail traders the opportunity to hear directly from professional traders and leaders in the online trading space. We’re excited to help share their experience, strategies, knowledge and insights for the trading year ahead.”
Justin D. Hertzberg, Esq., CEO of Forest Park FX said, “We have had the privilege of sponsoring the two prior TraderFest events, both of which were resounding successes. The speaker lineup for this TraderFest event is the best one yet, with market experts from virtually every asset class coming together to share their views on the market and provide guidance in unprecedented times. I am looking forward to the event as a sponsor, but also as a trader trying to make sense of the markets.”
Boris Schlossberg from BKForex shared with us, “I am thrilled to have 12 world class traders share their best ideas on strategy, psychology and tools at TraderFest 2021. This project has been a labor of love for me, and I hope retail traders enjoy it to the fullest”.
This online trading event will take place on June 26-27 and will be FREE for attendees. The official slogan of the event is “One Big Trade”.
During TraderFest 2021, experts from various financial fields will cover a range of topics, including Forex, CFDs, Stocks, and much more.
There will be a lot of proven Forex professionals among the event’s speakers, including the Original Market Wizard Linda Raschke. They will share their insights and tips in six discussion panels on Saturday and more on Sunday. The presenters will include Rob Booker, Blake Morrow, Justin Hertzberg, Mandi Rafsendjani, Tracy Shuchart, Daniel Sinnig, and Kiana Danial on the first day. Karen Foo, Kathy Lien, Linda Raschke, Stuart McPhee, and Boris Schlossberg will tell more about market insights on the second day of the event.
Those who want to attend the event can get a FREE spot and learn more by visiting www.traderfest2021.com. Those unable to attend won’t miss out; Eightcap will record the entire event. The only thing you have to do is to register so Eightcap can provide you with the video content.
About Eightcap
One of the leading Forex brokers, Eightcap provides online trading services on a global scale. The main services to look out for are CFDs based on shares, forex, cryptocurrencies, indices, and commodities. Being regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) and the Vanuatu Financial Services Commission (VFSC), the Melbourne-born company is well-established.
Cyprus-based multi-asset broker HotForex has announced that its exclusive reward program ROFM (Return on Free Margin) is back! The reward program is available again and offers new and existing clients the opportunity to earn generous returns up to 3% on their free margin!
How it Works
To participate, HotForex clients can join the ROFM program and start receiving daily earnings credited directly to their wallet to trade or withdraw!
Earnings are calculated based on the daily free margin of the trading accounts and the current month’s accumulated trading volume. The total return will be credited to the client’s wallet every month.
A HotForex spokesperson commented on the reward program: “We always keep our clients at the heart of everything we do to ensure they enjoy the best possible trading experience. With ROFM we want our clients to be rewarded with the returns they deserve for their loyalty and continuous support.”
HotForex is an internationally acclaimed multi-asset broker of choice to over 2.5 million live accounts worldwide that has earned over 45 coveted industry awards in its ten year history. The company offers a wide variety of account types, innovative products, platforms, tools and educational resources besides outstanding customer service and unparalleled trading conditions to facilitate individuals and institutional customers to trade Forex and CFDs online.
As the Dow Jones and SP500 indices getting close to their all-time highs, while the Nasdaq 100 index is slightly lower than its all-time highs, the US stocks have been very calm over the previous weeks.
It wasn’t that hard to predict this kind of dynamic since equities are perfectly correlated to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) balance sheet. Thus, should the Fed continue in its current monetary policy, stocks will most likely continue posting new all-time highs every month.
But still, traders can benefit from this short-term volatility. According to the VIX (volatility index), some downside risks for stocks are rising. The VIX has compressed into a tightening pattern (a falling wedge pattern) that implies an end is coming to the low volatility regime in stocks.
And then there is this correlation when the VIX rises the sticks will probably go down and vice versa. So, if the VIX breaks to the upside from its large pattern, volatility could return to equity markets.
The first stronger support for the SP500 index seems to be at around 4,200 USD. If that is broken, further losses toward 4,120 USD could occur. The index needs to stay above 4,000 USD to maintain the medium-term uptrend. However, bulls should try to create - and hold - new highs soon, or there might some frustration among the bullish camp and profit-taking, dragging stocks lower.
Again, it’s worth mentioning that any decline and uptrend can be a buying opportunity, especially with the Fed that does not plan on changing its monetary policy any time soon.
The non-farm payrolls report (taken from the establishment survey) attracts the majority of attention, often vibrating through financial markets. A favourable number (generally considered USD positive) reveals additional jobs were added to the economy, while a negative value (often viewed as USD negative), displayed as -100k or -90k, for example, means jobs were lost in non-farm business.
April’s non-farm payroll’s release was a huge disappointment. Payrolls increased by a less-than-impressive 266,000, following March’s downwardly revised 770,000 reading. With this, May’s figure will be widely watched. Note the three-month rolling average stands at 524,000, and the six-month rolling average falls in around 294,000.
According to the BLS, employment in leisure and hospitality increased more than 330,000 as a result of re-opening programmes across many parts of the country.
April’s figure weighed on the US dollar—as measured by the US dollar index (ticker: DXY)—though only a mild reaction was observed in US equities, through the S&P 500. This was largely due to the expectation the United States Federal Reserve is likely to maintain near-zero interest rates.
The general consensus for May’s US non-farm payrolls is an increase in the range of 650,000.
(Source: Reuters)
The Household Survey revealed unemployment was little changed in April, holding at 6.1 percent (March: 6.0 percent). Note the report’s official unemployment rate calculates by dividing the number of unemployed Americans (actively seeking employment) by the civilian labour force count.
According to the BLS, and also evident from the graph plotted below, April’s measures are significantly lower than April’s (2020) pandemic highs of 14.8 percent, but at the same time higher than pre-pandemic levels of 3.5 percent.
The real unemployment rate (U-6)—a broader view of unemployment than the official (U-3) release—represents the total of unemployed in the United States, including all persons marginally attached to the labour force and total employed part time for economic reasons (The BLS notes that marginally attached are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule). As you can see, the official release is artificially depressed.
April’s U-6 unemployment figure came in at 10.4 percent, down 0.3 percentage points from March‘s 10.7 percent reading—the lowest reading since March 2020. It is also worth noting that April’s 2020 pandemic high came in at an eye-popping 22.9 percent, while the U-3 official release was, as noted above, 14.8 percent.
May’s official US headline unemployment reading is forecasted to tick lower at 5.9 percent.
(Source: Reuters)
Calculated by the Establishment Survey, average hourly earnings is another key metric watched by economists and investors, measuring the amount private employees earn each hour in the United States.
In April, average hourly earnings suggested rising demand for labour, increasing by 0.7 percent from March’s -0.1 percent reading—this is the highest percentage print this year. (average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 21 cents to $30.17, following a decline of 4 cents in the prior month—a touch higher than April’s 2020 reading of $30.07).
The consensus for May’s average hourly earnings is forecasted to decline 0.2 percent.
(Source: Reuters)
FP Markets Technical View
To gather an overall picture of the US dollar’s position ahead of today’s US employment release, the FP Markets research team has analysed—from a technicalperspective—the US dollar index according to the long-term monthly timeframe, the daily timeframe, as well as the H1 timeframe.
(Figure 1.A: EUR/USD Vs. US Dollar Index)
Monthly timeframe:
From the monthly chart, technicians will note April spun lower from a trendline support-turned resistance, extended from the low 72.69, with May extending downside to within striking distance of support from 88.55 (note we also have a 50% retracement level nearby at 88.28 and a 61.8% Fib at 88.27). Overall, the major trend is lower (see arrows). Couple this with the recent trendline support breach, this emphasises a bearish USD market, long term.
(Source: Trading View—US dollar index monthly chart)
Daily timeframe:
A closer reading of price action on the daily scale shows they recently breached the upper side of what’s known as a declining wedge pattern (91.43/90.42). This—given the bearish narrative since March 31st peaks at 93.43—is likely considered a reversal signal, with buyers taking aim at 90.91 (the wedge pattern’s take-profit target, derived from taking the base measure and extending this value from the breakout point [red]).
As for trend on this timeframe, we can, in line with monthly price action, see this market has been entrenched within a downtrend since topping in early March 2020, just south of the 103.00 figure.
Also notable on the daily chart is we’re coming from support at 89.67 and, in recent days, elbowed north of resistance coming in at 90.10 (now labelled support).
Ultimately, traders are likely expecting a bearish reaction off 90.91, as sellers look to fade into the current pullback.
(Source: Trading View—US dollar index daily chart)
H1 timeframe:
From a shorter-term perspective, chart studies reveal the DXY recently touched gloves with a harmonic Gartley pattern (potential reversal zone [red] made up of a 78.6% Fib at 90.61, a 100% Fib projection at 90.57 and a 1.272% Fib extension at 90.66).
Should the above formation hold, support is considered an initial roadblock at 90.43, followed by the 38.2% Fib at 90.20 and the 61.8% Fib at 89.95 (values derived from legs A-D of the Gartley).
(Source: Trading View—US dollar index hourly chart)
The manufacturing sector has been highly pressured by the recent inflation created by the high commodities prices, when most industrial and grain commodities have moved vertically.
As the Chicago Business Barometer states, the factory gate prices just hit a 41-year high. In other words, the last time inflation was this high in 1980. That happened when the Federal Reserve (Fed) was forced to raise rates to over 15% and was one of the worst inflationary storms in history.
Slowing manufacturing, rising prices
So back in March 1983 the ISM Manufacturing was at its highest, but there was still hope for a small improvement for the April. Despite these hopeful expectations the ISM dropped from 64.7 to 60.7 - even as prices paid increased further. The prices paid subindex – i.e, the inflation component - rose for the eleventh month and now stands at June 2008 levels. Back then oil was way above 120 USD, nearing its peak, while the US 10-year yield stood at 4.
As manufacturers and suppliers face significant price pressures 0%, we can expect the retail prices of the goods in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket to rise over the next few months. This may result in the inflation way above 3%. Based on this, the investors would assume that strong price pressures should lead the Fed to tighten monetary policy.
Will the Fed raise rates?
When the central bank raises rates usually it is a bad sign for small companies with weaker balance sheets. Basically, they will need to pay more to survive in business. However, the largest companies may also be affected in case the rate goes up again. As bond prices drop, bond yields will surge, destroying bond investors. This situation has been happening since the summer of 2020. The economic activity usually contracts or slows down notably in the high-yield environment. It is expected that higher rates may lead to disinflationary pressures, but like with everything, it will take some considerable time for the real impact to show up.
With all the mentioned facts we can conclude that the Fed can't raise rates and can't taper its Quantitative Easing (QE) program. Otherwise, it could lead to a significant correction in the stock markets and the slowdown of an already fragile economy. And unfortunately, this might not end well, as the Fed simply doesn’t see a way around this situation and is trapped in it.
