Precious Metals Still Struggling, But are New Highs on the Horizon?
It looks like precious metals, such as gold and silver, have bottomed out in late November, and a new bull market is ready to begin.
Firstly, the more volatile metal, silver, has already broken above the pre-vaccine highs of 26 USD. That might be a confirmation of a new uptrend. Additionally, the metal managed to jump above the bearish trend line from summer highs, which could also be interpreted as a bullish sign.
However, gold seems to be struggling. It’s still below the bearish trend line from summer highs and near 100 USD away from the pre-vaccine highs of 1,960 USD.
Nevertheless, it still might indicate that precious metals have put the worst behind them and are ready to fly. There are many fundamental reasons for gold and silver to go higher.
Between 2008 and 2016, the Federal Reserve (Fed) printed around 3 trillion USD to combat the Great Financial Crisis and its aftermath. To combat the economic fallout from COVID-19, the Fed printed that same amount of money in just seven months.
Other central banks are not falling behind, and the amount of money thrown at the financial markets is a big one. US real yields are deeply negative – meaning inflation is higher than the bond’s yields – but they can still fall further.
All that money printing is debasing the greenback, which dropped to two and a half year lows recently, with the possibility of more downside movement ahead.
Lastly, panic regarding the new strain of COVID and the economic damage from lockdowns should also be bullish for metals. For gold, the metal needs to rise above 1,960 USD to confirm the bullish bias, while silver should stay above 26 USD to attack summer highs.