Markets React to the US Election and Potential Monetary Stimulus
It looks like Joe Biden will be the next US president, however it’s almost been a week since the election and the results haven’t been officially announced yet. The media has proclaimed Biden the winner, however, Biden’s opponent Donald Trump is suing many swing states for alleged vote fraud. Indeed, there are many suspicious occurrences such as dead people voting, more people voting than registered, kids voting and software glitches giving votes to Biden only.
Whether you prefer Democrats or Republicans, the voting process must be clear and without any suspicious activity, so Trump has the right to investigate these suspicious occurrences. If the Supreme Court starts investigations in many states, it might take weeks before the official election results are announced.
Nevertheless, one thing remains stable; we will get more fiscal and monetary stimulus, which effect the financial markets. It doesn’t really matter who wins the Presidency, but how much free money will be thrown at the markets.
Since the European Central Bank (ECB) seems ready to do more in December, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will most likely follow, and more Quantitative Easing (QE) will be announced. The Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia already announced new QEs. The inflationary spiral will be needed to depreciate all the debt, and investors will be hedging by buying stocks. The more inflation there will be, the higher the stock market goes, despite lockdowns and bankruptcies.
Thus, stocks’ long-term bull market still seems valid, and any dips are expected to be bought. Until central banks change their monetary policies significantly, the best hedge against inflation and rising debts is stocks.
The new administration in the US will make even more deficits and create more debts as much of its program is based on government funding schemes, which is, again, bullish for stocks. We can look forward to another interesting four years, that’s for sure.