Stocks Still Finding the Will to Push Higher

Stocks continue to find the will to push higher, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all hitting fresh record highs, while the Nikkei in Asia joined the party today. It’s an impressive show of resilience. Despite President Trump’s messaging being all over the map this week on the US-Iran negotiations - at times notably cavalier, openly saying he 'couldn’t care less' if talks collapse, while posting upbeat messages on Truth Social claiming discussions are still alive - risk assets continue to take a glass-half-full approach. 

A peace agreement is far from a fait accompli at this stage. Yet, the market seems determined to give diplomacy the benefit of the doubt, at least as long as tech sector enthusiasm continues to provide a powerful counterbalance. 

Oil has been on the rise this week as Iran talks tough once again, reviving threats to tighten the blockade not just on the Strait of Hormuz but also on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. This has injected a fresh dose of risk premium into crude prices. The longer the uncertainty drags on, the more real the threat becomes to global energy flows. US crude oil inventory data will be watched closely in the coming days to see if America is also beginning to draw down stockpiles in the same way other nations have been forced to do amid the conflict.