Earnings Shield Risk Assets from Geopolitical Storms 

In the currency markets, the US Dollar has been artificially softened since suspected heavy Japanese intervention to support the yen late last week. Despite this, the DXY has held relatively firm, supported by elevated oil prices and still-resilient US economic data. A standout performer has been the Australian Dollar, which strengthened after the RBA delivered its third successive rate hike this week, highlighting Australia’s exposure to higher global energy costs. The AUDUSD rate was last seen trading around 0.7230, up 8% year-to-date. 

Gold has remained highly susceptible to swings in oil prices. A welcome pullback in crude over the past 24 hours helped spot gold reclaim the $4,600 level, providing some relief after recent pressure. However, stubbornly high US Treasury yields continue to act as a brake on any sustained upside, reminding investors that the metal must contend with both elevated real rates and competition from a still-resilient Dollar. Technically, there is decent support for gold at around the $4500 level, with sturdier support awaiting at $4360. On the topside, resistance around $4650 and $4710 are levels to watch. 

Looking ahead to the remainder of the week, attention may start shifting away from the Middle East and back toward the US macro picture. Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls report will offer an early read on the labour market, while Friday’s all-important Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release will take centre stage. Strong jobs data could reinforce the higher-for-longer rate narrative, while softer figures might revive hopes of eventual Fed easing. Consensus expectations for the April NFP number are +65k, down from March’s +178k upside surprise.